The single most common mistake Medicare agents make is spending lead budget evenly across 12 months. Medicare is a seasonal market with four distinct selling windows defined by CMS enrollment periods, and each window has its own pricing, volume, and close-rate dynamics. Agents who align spend with those windows consistently outperform agents who drip budget evenly.
This is the month-by-month playbook we use with agents buying Medicare leads across Supplement and Advantage lines. Expect CPL and close rate ranges to shift inside the bands documented here — your vendor, state, and filters matter — but the shape of the curve is universal.
The Medicare Calendar at a Glance
Medicare sales are governed by four calendar events. Each creates a predictable demand spike, and each spike moves lead prices and close rates.
- AEP (Annual Enrollment Period): October 15 - December 7. The single largest selling window. Medicare Advantage and Part D plans can be changed. Peak competition, peak CPL, peak volume.
- MA-OEP (Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period): January 1 - March 31. MA enrollees can make one switch. Lower volume than AEP but still a real selling window.
- IEP (Initial Enrollment Period) / T65: Each beneficiary's 3-month-before to 3-month-after 65th birthday window. Year-round engine.
- SEP (Special Enrollment Period): Qualifying events like moving, loss of coverage, or 5-star plan switches. Distributed year-round.
Outside these periods, Medicare Supplement (Medigap) can still be sold year-round in most states, since Medigap is not bound to AEP. That is why agents who write a balanced Supplement/Advantage book survive the off-season far better than pure MA agents.
Pre-AEP: September Ramp
September is the quietest expensive month in Medicare lead buying. Carriers finalize plan designs, and beneficiaries start receiving Annual Notice of Change (ANOC) letters in late September. Beneficiary intent rises sharply in the last 10 days of the month.
Expected CPL shift: Exclusive Medicare web leads typically move from the summer baseline of $22-$32 into $28-$38 by the end of September as vendor inventory tightens. Live transfers move from $35-$45 up to $42-$55.
Expected close rate shift: Close rates on exclusive web leads tend to sit 1-2 points below AEP levels in September because beneficiary urgency has not peaked. Expect 8-11% on exclusive web, 14-18% on live transfers.
Playbook: Use September to test new vendors and new filters at lower CPL. Lock in AEP volume commitments by September 15 to hedge against October shortages. Pre-fund dialer credits and refresh your CRM so you can hit the ground running on October 15.
AEP: October 15 - December 7
AEP is where agents make 40-60% of their annual Medicare revenue. The 54-day window compresses six months of selling activity. Lead inventory is abundant but so is competition — especially in Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona.
Expected CPL shift: Exclusive web leads commonly trade at $30-$45 during AEP, with premium states reaching $50. Live transfers trade at $48-$70, with some vendors pushing $80 for heavily filtered inventory in the final two weeks. Aged leads (30-90 days) remain around $5-$12 but are usually January inventory, not AEP inventory.
Expected close rate shift: Beneficiary urgency is at its peak, so close rates climb. Exclusive web: 10-15%. Live transfers: 18-25% for experienced agents with refined AEP scripts. Speed-to-contact matters more during AEP than at any other time — under 60 seconds is the benchmark.
Playbook: Front-load budget. Agents who spread AEP spend evenly across 54 days underperform agents who concentrate 60% of budget between October 15 and November 15. Protect Thanksgiving week as a contact-heavy window — beneficiaries are home, not at work. Do not underestimate the last 72 hours before December 7: urgency closes deals that sat in pipeline for six weeks.
Lock-In: Mid-December
From December 8 through December 31, Medicare beneficiaries are locked into the plans they chose during AEP. There is still demand for Medicare Supplement sales and for appointment-setting ahead of MA-OEP, but volume drops sharply.
Expected CPL shift: Lead vendors cut prices 20-30% as demand softens. Exclusive web returns to the $22-$32 range. This is one of the best windows of the year to buy aged AEP leads in bulk at $4-$10 per lead.
Expected close rate shift: Close rates on fresh MA leads drop because the urgency window has closed. Focus shifts to Supplement sales and to building a January pipeline. Expect 6-9% on fresh MA, 10-14% on Supplement-interested leads.
Playbook: Buy deep-aged AEP leads in bulk. Use this window for agent training, script refinement, and CRM cleanup. Build an MA-OEP hit list from AEP enrollees who expressed doubt about their chosen plan.
OEP: January 1 - March 31
MA-OEP is the quiet second season. Medicare Advantage enrollees can make one plan switch, usually to fix a decision made in haste during AEP. Lead volume is roughly 30-40% of AEP volume, but competition is also lower because many agents burn out after AEP.
Expected CPL shift: Exclusive web leads run $25-$38. Live transfers run $40-$55. Aged AEP leads are widely available at $4-$10 and can be very profitable for experienced dialers.
Expected close rate shift: Close rates on buyer-remorse leads can actually exceed AEP numbers for skilled agents — the prospect already knows they made the wrong call and is motivated to switch. Expect 11-16% on exclusive web, 18-23% on live transfers.
Playbook: Lead with a plan-fit audit rather than a hard close. The SEP landscape also opens up here for moves, dual-eligibles, and extra help enrollees. Medigap sales continue year-round — push Supplement messaging for clients aging out of MA.
The Summer Lull: April - August
April through August is the Medicare off-season. MA is largely locked until the next AEP, and only Medigap and T65 leads carry the business. Most agents pull back on spend here; disciplined agents lean in at lower CPL.
Expected CPL shift: Exclusive web leads trade at $20-$30. Live transfers trade at $32-$45. Some vendors offer 10-20% volume discounts to clear inventory.
Expected close rate shift: Close rates on Supplement and T65 leads hold steady — these buyers are not waiting for AEP. Expect 9-13% on Supplement-focused web leads, 15-20% on T65 live transfers.
Playbook: Shift budget from MA to Medigap and T65. Build content and referral pipelines. Use the lull to renegotiate vendor contracts for AEP and to train new agents at low cost-per-mistake.
Turning 65 Leads: Year-Round Engine
Turning 65 (T65) leads are the most stable segment of the Medicare market. Roughly 11,000 Americans age into Medicare every day, and their Initial Enrollment Period obligates a decision within six months. These leads are available in every month with minimal seasonality.
Expected CPL: $28-$45 for exclusive web, $45-$65 for live transfers. T65 does not discount during the summer lull because demand is inelastic — the beneficiary must enroll.
Expected close rate: 12-18% on exclusive web, 20-28% on live transfers. T65 close rates beat shared AEP leads in almost every scenario.
Playbook: Maintain a steady T65 spend year-round rather than starving the funnel during AEP. T65 is where stable Medigap production gets built.
Monthly Budget Allocation Model
If your annual Medicare lead budget is $120,000, here is a defensible allocation that aligns spend with expected return:
- September: $12,000 (10%) — ramp, test, stockpile volume commitments
- October: $24,000 (20%) — AEP peak week-one through week-three
- November: $18,000 (15%) — AEP close-out, Thanksgiving push
- December (1-7): $9,000 (7.5%) — final urgency spend
- December (8-31): $3,000 (2.5%) — aged leads, Supplement, OEP setup
- January: $12,000 (10%) — OEP launch, buyer-remorse conversions
- February: $9,000 (7.5%) — OEP mid, Supplement emphasis
- March: $6,000 (5%) — OEP close-out
- April - August: $27,000 (22.5% across 5 months) — T65 and Supplement, average $5,400/month
Adjust for your vertical mix. Agents writing 70% MA should concentrate even more heavily in AEP. Agents writing 70% Medigap should flatten the curve and emphasize T65 year-round.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are Medicare leads cheapest?
Exclusive Medicare web leads are cheapest in mid-December through late February and again between May and August. Aged AEP inventory is deeply discounted in January and February.
Is it worth buying Medicare leads during AEP given the higher cost?
Yes. AEP CPL rises 20-40% over off-season, but close rates typically rise by a similar margin and volume of decisions is 3-5x higher. Cost per acquisition during AEP is usually equal to or better than off-season despite the CPL increase.
How much should a solo agent spend on Medicare leads during AEP?
Solo agents writing Medicare full-time typically allocate $3,000-$8,000 on leads during AEP alone, depending on close rate and carrier mix. Agents new to AEP should budget at least $2,500 for the 54-day window to generate enough volume to learn.
Should I buy aged leads during AEP?
Generally no. During AEP your time is better spent on fresh leads where urgency is highest. Aged leads are a December-through-March and April-through-August play.
Do Turning 65 leads slow down at any point in the year?
No. T65 volume is remarkably stable because it tracks U.S. birthday distribution. There is a small early-year uptick for beneficiaries whose IEP started late the prior year, but the swing is under 10%.
How far in advance should I lock in AEP lead commitments?
Lock in volume commitments by September 15. Vendors who sell out of AEP inventory in early October leave late-committing agents paying spot-market premiums of 20-30% above contracted rates.
What happens to CPL when plan-year carriers change commission levels?
When CMS adjusts max broker compensation (announced each spring), lead vendors follow the carriers' downstream pricing changes within 4-8 weeks. Expect vendor CPL to move 5-10% in the same direction as the commission change.
Plan Your 2026 Medicare Lead Year
Aligning lead spend with the Medicare calendar is the single highest-ROI adjustment most agents can make. If you want a custom month-by-month plan built around your vertical mix and target states, our team can walk you through it. Contact us or book a 30-minute planning call — we will map your CPL, close rate, and budget curves against this playbook and identify the biggest timing mistakes in your current plan.